Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Slightly Favored at Home Over Spurs in Game 7 of Western Conference Finals

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Total: 212.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Spurs
47-49 (49%)	All	57-42-1 (57%)
24-25 (49%) at home	Location	29-22 (55%) on the road
43-45 (48%) as favorite	Status	15-8 (65%) as underdog
23-25 (47%) as home favorite	Location Status	12-8 (60%) as road underdog
4-7 (36%)	Head To Head	7-4 (63%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 55-41 (57%) against the over on the season.
• San Antonio is 46-53-1 (46%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 27-22 (55%) against the over at home.
• The Spurs are 25-25-1 (50%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
SAS	115.5	105.1	46.9	36.1	47.7	25.4	15.4	8.7	7.6	W1	6-4
OKC	116.4	108.2	47.2	36.6	42.0	26.1	12.9	10.3	4.6	L1	7-3

Injury Report

Thunder

• Ajay Mitchell (strained right soleus) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (left hamstring soreness) is OUT.

Spurs

• NONE

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-3.5)

No game in this series has been decided by fewer than 7 points, but that doesn’t mean this one will follow suit. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still looking for a good game by his own standards, and Victor Wembanyama is as focused as he ever has been. I think they both play well, but the real needle-mover in this series has been bench play. OKC’s backups have played extremely well at home, and I see them doing that tonight. I expect a tight game that comes down to the final minutes, with the Spurs fouling the Thunder for some late free throws to cover the spread.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (212.5)

The only way I see this game going under the point total is if it’s a blowout in either direction, and I don’t think anyone expects that. While the last 4 games have been decided by at least 13 points, I don’t see that happening tonight. I think we’re going to see a tight game decided by defense early, before some late shot-making sends someone to the NBA Finals. As a result, I’m taking the over.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	76-19	42-53	38-57
Zack	77-19	50-46	47-49
Craig	75-20	36-58-1	38-57