Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Looks to End Losing Streak as Big Favorite Over Kings in Sacramento

Tip-Off: 8 PM CT

Location: Intuit Dome (Los Angeles, California)

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Total: 222.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Kings
7-6 (53%)	All	4-8 (33%)
3-5 (37%) on the road	Location	3-4 (42%) at home
6-4 (60%) as the favorite	Status	4-8 (33%) as underdog
2-3 (40%) as road favorite	Location Status	3-4 (42%) as home underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head-to-Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 5-8 (38%) against the over for the season.
• Sacramento is 6-6 (50%) against the over for the season.
• The Thunder are 3-5 (37%) against the over on the road.
• The Kings are 3-4 (42%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	111.2	107.4	45.4	34.3	46.6	22.8	13.3	7.9	5.4	L3	5-5
SAC	108.2	120.9	45.5	34.5	39.9	25.0	17.1	7.8	3.5	L11	0-10

Injury Report

Thunder

• Chet Holmgren (right knee patellar tendinitis) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (sprained left ankle) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Thomas Sorber (right knee surgery) is OUT.
• Cason Wallace (left shoulder labral tear) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (left ankle fracture) is OUT.
• Jaylin Williams (lower back spasms) is OUT.

Kings

• Precious Achiuwa (left ankle soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Jonathan Mogbo (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Keegan Murray (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Sean Pedulla (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Maxime Raynaud (right patella subluxation) is OUT.
• Ben Simmons (right Achilles tendon surgery) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-10.5)

This is a big spread for a team that is on a 3-game losing streak, but the Kings have lost 8 games by at least 11 points already this season. Even in the losses, OKC has shown spots of winning basketball, and it feels like they’re on the brink of figuring some things out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was pretty brilliant against the Clippers a couple of days ago, but the main issue has been the defense. As soon as Mark Daigneault figures out rotations a little better, the Thunder will start rolling, and this game feels like a good one to move in that direction.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (222.5)

Sacramento is bottom 4 in the NBA in both scoring offense and scoring defense. OKC also ranks near the bottom in scoring offense, but even though the defense has been shaky through the injuries, the Thunder still allow just 107.4 points per game. I can see Shai Gilgeous-Alexander having another good game, but more importantly, this is a great opportunity for his supporting cast to step things up on both ends. I like OKC to win big, and for that to happen, they’re going to have to play solid defense, which leads me to believe this matchup will have a lower point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	7-6	5-8	6-7
Zack	8-5	6-7	8-5
Craig	7-6	5-8	6-7