Tip-Off: 8 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Miami (+6.5)
Heat/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|11-18-1 (37.9%)||17-13 (56.7%)|
|7-9 (43.8%) on the road||5-8 (38.5%) at home|
|5-11-1 (31.2%) as favorite||15-13 (53.6%) as underdog or pick|
|2-4 (33.3%) as road favorite||4-8 (33.3%) at home dog|
|Head To Head|
|1-0 (100%)||0-1 (0%)|
Heat/Thunder Trends Against The Total
Both teams are hitting the over greater than 50% of the time in this situation. Miami is 9-7 when the total is at 205 or greater and Oklahoma City is 7-6. However, both teams are below 50% on the season at hitting the over. The Heat are 14-16 against the over and the Thunder are 14-15-1.
Oklahoma City had a hard time containing Bam Adebayo in the first meeting this season. The Heat center posted 20 points, pulled down 8 rebounds and dished out 4 assists. Power forward Kelly Olynyk also had a big night with 19 points and 8 rebounds.
For Oklahoma City is was SGA and Darius Bazley combining for 34 points in that first game. The Thunder will need a repeat performance from those two plus some support from the likes of Lu Dort who scored a quiet 12 points in the opening meeting.
Game 1 | Miami 118 – OKC 90
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+6.5)
Miami comes to Oklahoma City below 50% on every major statistical category against the spread except for the head-to-head against the Thunder. The Heat are 37.9% against the spread over the course of the season, 43.8% on the road, and 28.6% as a road favorite.
Meanwhile, OKC has had its share of issues at home as well. The Thunder are 38.5% against the spread at home 33.3% as a home underdog.
There is a silver lining here though. Oklahoma City is 15-13 against the spread as an underdog this season and Miami is just 5-11-1 as a favorite. That’s where we need to hang our hats tonight folks. The Heat are equally as bad of a road favorite as Oklahoma City is a home dog (both are 33% against the spread) but the season trend against this type of line heavily favors OKC.
Let me throw one more key stat out to you. Oklahoma City is 16-13 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back while Miami is 10-17-1 after a day off.
The Heat may very well win this game but it won’t be by more than six points.
Why The Game Will Not Hit The Over
I’m sticking with the under for the second night in a row and here’s why. Both teams are under 50% at hitting the over when the total is greater than 205 points. Yup, it really is that simple for me tonight.
When the line is between 212 and 215 Oklahoma City is 1-3 at hitting the over.
What scares me about this pick is that Oklahoma City has hit the over in all five of its second games of a back-to-back. That’s an impressive trend but it isn’t enough to sway me. Especially when we already have have a history of the two not hitting the over in the first meeting.
On The Season
We finally got back in the win column last night. WooHoo!!!
Against the Spread: 3-4 Last Pick: OKC (-2.5) vs. Cleveland
Over/Under: 4-3 Last Pick: OKC/Cleveland Under 219
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