Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (OKC)
Spread: Heat (-9)
Heat/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|9-4 (69%)||7-5 (58%)|
|5-3 (62%) on the road||4-2 (66%) at home|
|4-4 (50%) as a favorite||7-5 (58%) as an underdog or pick|
|1-3 as a road favorite (50%)||4-2 (80%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Heat/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is hitting the over just 25% of the time this season.
The Heat are hitting the over 61% of the time this season.
The Thunder are 3-3 against the over at home.
Miami is 6-2 against the over on the road.
Jimmy Butler is vital to Miami’s success. The Heat small forward is posting team best averages in points per game and field goal percentage, averaging 23.6 points and 52.7% from the floor. Butler is questionable with an ankle injury. He played just 10 minutes against the Lakers on Wednesday night but had a 31-point night in Monday’s loss at Denver.
Center Bam Adebayo filled the gap in Butler’s absence against the Lakers when he posted 28 points and 10 rebounds in 34 minutes of play. Point guard Kyle Lowry is averaging 7 assists per night.
The Thunder fell back into an offensive funk on Sunday night, scoring just 96 points in the loss to Brooklyn. OKC’s best bet to get back on track rests on point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On the season, SGA is leading the Thunder with an average of 22.6 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the floor. He scored, 23 points on 57% shooting, in Sunday’s loss.
Rookie Josh Giddy is averaging 5.9 assists per game.
First meeting of the season.
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+9)
I got burned by Oklahoma City’s lackluster offensive performance against Brooklyn on Sunday night but I’m still approaching Monday with some confidence. Clearly if Jimmy Bultler isn’t able to go then that’s a huge advantage for the Thunder. Even if Butler plays though, Miami is only outscoring opponents on the road by an average of 3.2 points per game. OKC is getting beat by an average of 4.8 points per game at home and those averages would favor the Thunder against a 9-point spread.
This only the second time the Thunder have played in back-to-back nights this season but they beat the Lakers the second game the last time.
OKC is covering the spread 66% of the time at home and that’s the cherry on top for me in terms of confidence against a near double-figure spread.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over (208)
I absolutely love the over tonight! I thought the odds of it hitting were high last night but I have even more confidence it in tonight. Miami is averaging 110.5 points per game on the road and OKC is producing 104 points per game, on average, at home. That in itself should be enough to get your attention, then add to it that Miami hits the over 61% of the time this season, and 75% of the time when playing on the road. That’s a solid argument for taking the over!
If you needed further convincing though, consider this. The only other time the Thunder have played in a back-to-back this season there were a total of 211 combined points scored between them and the Lakers on the second night. That would beat today’s total by three points!
On The Season
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