Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Kicks Off Homestand as Massive Favorite Over Warriors

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Total: 218.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Warriors
31-33 (48%)	All	28-34 (45%)
15-17 (46%) at home	Location	13-17 (43%) on the road
28-32 (46%) as favorite	Status	9-12 (42%) as underdog
14-17 (45%) as home favorite	Location Status	7-6 (53%) as road underdog
3-0 (100%)	Head To Head	0-3 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 35-29 (54%) against the over on the season.
• Golden State is 36-26 (58%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 16-16 (50%) against the over at home.
• The Knicks are 16-14 (53%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
GSW	115.3	114.1	46.1	36.0	42.9	29.2	15.6	9.9	4.4	W1	8-2
OKC	118.9	107.8	48.2	36.1	44.0	25.5	12.7	9.8	5.6	W4	7-3

Injury Report

Thunder

• Branden Carlson (strained lower back) is OUT.
• Alex Caruso (left hip contusion) is OUT.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (left calf contusion) is OUT.
• Chet Holmgren (flu) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal; sprained left ankle) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Warriors

• Jimmy Butler III (right ACL surgery) is OUT.
• Seth Curry (let sciatic nerve irritation) is OUT.
• Steph Curry (right patellofemoral pain syndrome) is OUT.
• De’Anthony Melton (left knee injury management) is OUT.
• Moses Moody (sprained right wrist) is OUT.
• Gary Payton II (left ankle impingement) is PROBABLE.
• Kristaps Porzingis (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Will Richard (sprained right ankle) is QUESTIONABLE.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-12.5)

OKC has had a tough time covering spreads, not just recently but all season long. However, the Thunder is 3-0 against the spread when playing the Warriors this season, as all three games have been dominant wins for OKC. I think tonight is going to be a similar situation, especially when you consider that the Thunder is the healthier team in a matchup for once. Golden State doesn’t have anyone who can slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Thunder has enough depth at every position to keep the Warriors uncomfortable.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (218.5)

OKC has been playing pretty solid defense lately, which has created some lower-scoring games, and while I do think they hold the Warriors to below their season average, I’m expecting the Thunder to cover and win big. As a result, this one is going to push over the point total, maybe even easily.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	49-14	28-35	27-36
Zack	50-14	31-33	32-32
Craig	48-15	24-38-1	26-37