Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored Heavily Over Suns Yet Again for Game 2

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-17.5)

Total: 215.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Suns
40-43 (48%)	All	49-36 (57%)
20-23 (46%) at home	Location	24-18 (57%) on the road
37-41 (47%) as favorite	Status	24-20 (54%) as underdog
19-23 (45%) as home underdog	Location Status	12-14 (46%) as road underdog
3-3 (50%)	Head To Head	3-3 (50%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 45-38 (54%) against the over on the season.
• Phoenix is 36-49 (42%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 22-21 (51%) against the over at home.
• The Suns are 20-22 (47%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
PHO	84.0	119.0	34.9	33.3	45.0	16.0	19.0	3.0	2.0	L1	0-1
OKC	119.0	84.0	45.2	30.4	54.0	28.0	8.0	13.0	7.0	W1	1-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.

Suns

• Grayson Allen (strained left hamstring) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Jordan Goodwin (left calf soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Mark Williams (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction) is QUESTIONABLE.

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-17.5)

After blowing out the Suns in Game 1, the Thunder enters Game 2 as an even bigger favorite. 17.5 points is tied for the biggest spread in an NBA Playoff game ever, and while OKC could definitely hit this, I still expect a better game from Phoenix. The Thunder shouldn’t struggle to win the game in the end, but a late cover by the Suns feels likely, so I’m taking Phoenix to cover.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (215.5)

OKC’s defense was suffocating in Game 1, and I expect the same in Game 2. Phoenix will be refocused, though, and taking care of the ball should be at the top of the priority list. Holding the Suns to below 90 points in consecutive games would be an incredible feat, but keeping them to below 100 points seems reasonable, which is why I see this point total falling just under the total one again.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	65-17	36-46	34-48
Zack	67-16	42-41	41-42
Craig	65-17	30-51-1	32-50