Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored Ahead of Defensive Matchup in Phoenix

Tip-Off: 8 PM CT

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix, Arizona)

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Total: 217.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Suns
26-28 (48%)	All	34-19 (64%)
13-13 (50%) on the road	Location	17-9 (65%) at home
26-28 (48%) as favorite	Status	17-10 (63%) as underdog
13-13 (50%) as road favorite	Location Status	8-2 (80%) as home underdog
1-2 (33%)	Head To Head	2-1 (66%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 30-24 (55%) against the over on the season.
• Phoenix is 20-33 (37%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 16-10 (61%) against the over on the road.
• The Suns are 8-18 (30%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	119.9	108.0	48.7	36.1	43.7	25.5	12.5	10.0	5.8	W1	5-5
PHO	113.7	111.4	46.0	36.4	43.1	25.0	15.0	10.2	4.0	W1	5-5

Injury Report

Thunder

• Brooks Barnhizer (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (strained abdominal) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (G League — two-way) is OUT.

Suns

• Grayson Allen (sprained right knee) is OUT.
• Cole Anthony (not with team) is OUT.
• Devin Booker (right ankle injury management) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Jalen Green (right hamstring injury management) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Isaiah Livers (sprained left shoulder) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-7.5)

Jalen Williams came alive in the fourth quarter on Monday against the Lakers to fuel the Thunder to a solid win, and I think he picks up tonight where he left off. With SGA still out, Williams will need to shoulder more of the offensive load, but he has help coming from Chet Holmgren, who has played well against the Suns this season (21.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG on 67.6% FG and 57.1% 3P in 3 meetings). Isaiah Hartenstein has yet to play against the Suns this season, so he will add another dynamic as he continues to increase his minutes after returning from injury. Taking all of this into account, plus the fact that the Suns just played last night, I’m taking OKC to cover.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (217.5)

This game features two of the best defenses in the NBA, but that doesn’t always equate to a low-scoring game. OKC’s role players are being expected to contribute more in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence, and Phoenix just played last night against the Dallas Mavericks. I like this one to have just enough offense to go over the point total, which isn’t really that high anyway.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	42-12	26-28	25-29
Zack	42-12	28-26	28-26
Craig	41-12	18-34-1	21-32